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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Yard Spotter” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #459 of 702. Estimated risk: 83.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

52%

“Yard Spotter” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 52% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Yard Spotter” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Coordinate activities of switch-engine crew within railroad yard, industrial plant, or similar location. Conductors coordinate activities of train crew on passenger or freight trains. Yardmasters review train schedules and switching orders and coordinate activities of workers engaged in railroad traffic operations, such as the makeup or breakup of trains and yard switching.

Avg. Annual Salary $75,490
Avg. Hourly Wage $36.29
Available Jobs (US) 42,710
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters #53-4031
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Confer with engineers regarding train routes, timetables, and cargoes, and to discuss alternative routes when there are rail defects or obstructions.

  • Record departure and arrival times, messages, tickets and revenue collected, and passenger accommodations and destinations.

  • Observe yard traffic to determine tracks available to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic.

  • Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.

  • Inspect freight cars for compliance with sealing procedures, and record car numbers and seal numbers.

  • Operate controls to activate track switches and traffic signals.

  • Direct engineers to move cars to fit planned train configurations, combining or separating cars to make up or break up trains.

  • Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.

  • Supervise and coordinate crew activities to transport freight and passengers and to provide boarding, porter, maid, and meal services to passengers.

  • Direct and instruct workers engaged in yard activities, such as switching tracks, coupling and uncoupling cars, and routing inbound and outbound traffic.

  • Signal engineers to begin train runs, stop trains, or change speed, using telecommunications equipment or hand signals.

  • Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.

  • Instruct workers to set warning signals in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops.

  • Verify accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time.

  • Supervise workers in the inspection and maintenance of mechanical equipment to ensure efficient and safe train operation.

  • Inspect each car periodically during runs.

  • Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.

  • Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.

  • Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.

  • Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.

Technologies & Software

  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Mobileye AI
  • Freight reservation software
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Microsoft Excel
  • SAIC government services and IT support software
  • RailComm DocYard
  • Bourque Data Systems YardMaster
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Grok (xAI)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Softrail AEI Rail & Road Manager
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Automated equipment identification AEI software
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • DeepSeek
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Inventory tracking software
  • Gatik AI
  • Microsoft Word
  • Positive train control PTC systems
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Softrail AEI Automatic Yard Tracking System
  • Adjustable wrenches
  • Switching system controls
  • Automatic container locks
  • Mainframe computers
  • Bridge plates
  • Car pullers
  • Terminal wrenches
  • Desktop computers
  • Locking ratchet wrenches
  • Cable sheath cutters
  • Tie-down winches
  • Starter punches
  • Personal computers
  • Uncoupling levers
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Switch adjusting wrenches
  • Weigh-in-motion scales
  • Portable bar code scanners
  • Laptop computers
  • Two way radios
  • Portable satellite communications systems
  • Radio frequency identification RFID devices
  • Intercom systems