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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Yard Manager” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #459 of 702. Estimated risk: 83.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

52%

“Yard Manager” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 52% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Yard Manager” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Coordinate activities of switch-engine crew within railroad yard, industrial plant, or similar location. Conductors coordinate activities of train crew on passenger or freight trains. Yardmasters review train schedules and switching orders and coordinate activities of workers engaged in railroad traffic operations, such as the makeup or breakup of trains and yard switching.

Avg. Annual Salary $75,490
Avg. Hourly Wage $36.29
Available Jobs (US) 42,710
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters #53-4031
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Record departure and arrival times, messages, tickets and revenue collected, and passenger accommodations and destinations.

  • Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.

  • Instruct workers to set warning signals in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops.

  • Operate controls to activate track switches and traffic signals.

  • Supervise and coordinate crew activities to transport freight and passengers and to provide boarding, porter, maid, and meal services to passengers.

  • Inspect each car periodically during runs.

  • Signal engineers to begin train runs, stop trains, or change speed, using telecommunications equipment or hand signals.

  • Observe yard traffic to determine tracks available to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic.

  • Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.

  • Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.

  • Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.

  • Verify accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time.

  • Direct and instruct workers engaged in yard activities, such as switching tracks, coupling and uncoupling cars, and routing inbound and outbound traffic.

  • Supervise workers in the inspection and maintenance of mechanical equipment to ensure efficient and safe train operation.

  • Confer with engineers regarding train routes, timetables, and cargoes, and to discuss alternative routes when there are rail defects or obstructions.

  • Direct engineers to move cars to fit planned train configurations, combining or separating cars to make up or break up trains.

  • Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.

  • Inspect freight cars for compliance with sealing procedures, and record car numbers and seal numbers.

  • Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.

  • Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.

Technologies & Software

  • Automated equipment identification AEI software
  • SAIC government services and IT support software
  • Microsoft Office software
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Microsoft Word
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Gatik AI
  • Freight reservation software
  • Inventory tracking software
  • Softrail AEI Automatic Yard Tracking System
  • Softrail AEI Rail & Road Manager
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Microsoft Excel
  • RailComm DocYard
  • Bourque Data Systems YardMaster
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Mobileye AI
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Positive train control PTC systems
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • DeepSeek
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Bridge plates
  • Terminal wrenches
  • Laptop computers
  • Personal computers
  • Starter punches
  • Tie-down winches
  • Switch adjusting wrenches
  • Automatic container locks
  • Switching system controls
  • Mainframe computers
  • Intercom systems
  • Car pullers
  • Desktop computers
  • Locking ratchet wrenches
  • Adjustable wrenches
  • Weigh-in-motion scales
  • Radio frequency identification RFID devices
  • Two way radios
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Cable sheath cutters
  • Portable satellite communications systems
  • Portable bar code scanners
  • Uncoupling levers