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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Toy Maker” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #119 of 702. Estimated risk: 3.7%

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AI Exposure Risk

53%

“Toy Maker” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 53% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

36%

“Toy Maker” will probably not be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 36% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial and Industrial Designers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Design and develop manufactured products, such as cars, home appliances, and children's toys. Combine artistic talent with research on product use, marketing, and materials to create the most functional and appealing product design.

Avg. Annual Salary $88,000
Avg. Hourly Wage $42.31
Available Jobs (US) 30,250
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial and Industrial Designers #27-1021
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial and Industrial Designers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Design graphic material for use as ornamentation, illustration, or advertising on manufactured materials and packaging or containers.

  • Coordinate the look and function of product lines.

  • Research production specifications, costs, production materials, and manufacturing methods and provide cost estimates and itemized production requirements.

  • Direct and coordinate the fabrication of models or samples and the drafting of working drawings and specification sheets from sketches.

  • Evaluate feasibility of design ideas, based on factors such as appearance, safety, function, serviceability, budget, production costs/methods, and market characteristics.

  • Advise corporations on issues involving corporate image projects or problems.

  • Prepare sketches of ideas, detailed drawings, illustrations, artwork, or blueprints, using drafting instruments, paints and brushes, or computer-aided design equipment.

  • Investigate product characteristics such as the product's safety and handling qualities, its market appeal, how efficiently it can be produced, and ways of distributing, using, and maintaining it.

  • Supervise assistants' work throughout the design process.

  • Modify and refine designs, using working models, to conform with customer specifications, production limitations, or changes in design trends.

  • Confer with engineering, marketing, production, or sales departments, or with customers, to establish and evaluate design concepts for manufactured products.

  • Fabricate models or samples in paper, wood, glass, fabric, plastic, metal, or other materials, using hand or power tools.

  • Present designs and reports to customers or design committees for approval and discuss need for modification.

  • Develop manufacturing procedures and monitor the manufacture of their designs in a factory to improve operations and product quality.

  • Read publications, attend showings, and study competing products and design styles and motifs to obtain perspective and generate design concepts.

  • Participate in new product planning or market research, including studying the potential need for new products.

  • Develop industrial standards and regulatory guidelines.

Technologies & Software

  • Perplexity AI
  • National Instruments LabVIEW
  • Udio
  • Adobe After Effects
  • Dassault Systemes SolidWorks
  • JavaScript
  • Computer aided manufacturing CAM software
  • InVision software
  • DALL-E 3 (OpenAI)
  • Software as a service SaaS
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Siemens UGS NX
  • Microsoft Access
  • Midjourney
  • Adobe FreeHand MX
  • Apple iOS
  • SAP software
  • Cascading style sheets CSS
  • Geometric CAMWorks
  • Chaos Group V-Ray
  • Runway ML
  • C#
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • McNeel Rhinoceros 3D
  • Autodesk 3ds Max
  • IBM Notes
  • Dassault Systemes CATIA
  • Finite element analysis software
  • LoveArt AI
  • Python
  • Corel CorelDraw Graphics Suite
  • CapCut AI
  • Autodesk AutoCAD
  • 1CadCam Unigraphics
  • Figma
  • Suno AI
  • PTC Creo Parametric
  • Sora (OpenAI)
  • The MathWorks MATLAB
  • Adobe Photoshop
  • Trimble SketchUp Pro
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Delphi Technology
  • C++
  • Eko
  • Autodesk Revit
  • Microsoft Project
  • Email software
  • QuarkXPress
  • C
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Adobe Illustrator
  • ElevenLabs
  • ESRI ArcGIS software
  • Siemens NX
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Napkin AI
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Adobe Acrobat
  • Corel Painter
  • Minitab
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Microsoft Publisher
  • Adobe Firefly
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Maxon Cinema 4D
  • Autodesk Maya
  • Ashlar-Vellum Cobalt
  • Adobe InDesign
  • Hypertext markup language HTML
  • Web browser software
  • Xara Designer Pro
  • Kapwing
  • jQuery
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Microsoft Word
  • Autodesk AliasStudio
  • Recraft
  • Gemini (Google)
  • DeepSeek
  • Apache Maven
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Verilog
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Desktop computers
  • Liquid crystal display LCD video projectors
  • Compact digital cameras
  • Laptop computers
  • Personal computers
  • Universal serial bus USB flash drives