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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Toy Maker” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #119 of 702. Estimated risk: 3.7%

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AI Exposure Risk

53%

“Toy Maker” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 53% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

36%

“Toy Maker” will probably not be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 36% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial and Industrial Designers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Design and develop manufactured products, such as cars, home appliances, and children's toys. Combine artistic talent with research on product use, marketing, and materials to create the most functional and appealing product design.

Avg. Annual Salary $88,000
Avg. Hourly Wage $42.31
Available Jobs (US) 30,250
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial and Industrial Designers #27-1021
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial and Industrial Designers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Prepare sketches of ideas, detailed drawings, illustrations, artwork, or blueprints, using drafting instruments, paints and brushes, or computer-aided design equipment.

  • Fabricate models or samples in paper, wood, glass, fabric, plastic, metal, or other materials, using hand or power tools.

  • Coordinate the look and function of product lines.

  • Modify and refine designs, using working models, to conform with customer specifications, production limitations, or changes in design trends.

  • Confer with engineering, marketing, production, or sales departments, or with customers, to establish and evaluate design concepts for manufactured products.

  • Evaluate feasibility of design ideas, based on factors such as appearance, safety, function, serviceability, budget, production costs/methods, and market characteristics.

  • Develop manufacturing procedures and monitor the manufacture of their designs in a factory to improve operations and product quality.

  • Investigate product characteristics such as the product's safety and handling qualities, its market appeal, how efficiently it can be produced, and ways of distributing, using, and maintaining it.

  • Advise corporations on issues involving corporate image projects or problems.

  • Research production specifications, costs, production materials, and manufacturing methods and provide cost estimates and itemized production requirements.

  • Design graphic material for use as ornamentation, illustration, or advertising on manufactured materials and packaging or containers.

  • Develop industrial standards and regulatory guidelines.

  • Present designs and reports to customers or design committees for approval and discuss need for modification.

  • Supervise assistants' work throughout the design process.

  • Participate in new product planning or market research, including studying the potential need for new products.

  • Direct and coordinate the fabrication of models or samples and the drafting of working drawings and specification sheets from sketches.

  • Read publications, attend showings, and study competing products and design styles and motifs to obtain perspective and generate design concepts.

Technologies & Software

  • Autodesk AliasStudio
  • Autodesk AutoCAD
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Siemens NX
  • Apple iOS
  • C++
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • McNeel Rhinoceros 3D
  • Napkin AI
  • Minitab
  • PTC Creo Parametric
  • Autodesk Maya
  • Xara Designer Pro
  • JavaScript
  • National Instruments LabVIEW
  • IBM Notes
  • Adobe Illustrator
  • Ashlar-Vellum Cobalt
  • Corel CorelDraw Graphics Suite
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Trimble SketchUp Pro
  • Software as a service SaaS
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Email software
  • ESRI ArcGIS software
  • Cascading style sheets CSS
  • C
  • Microsoft Publisher
  • Web browser software
  • CapCut AI
  • Adobe Acrobat
  • Microsoft Word
  • C#
  • Delphi Technology
  • Siemens UGS NX
  • Hypertext markup language HTML
  • Runway ML
  • DALL-E 3 (OpenAI)
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Sora (OpenAI)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Verilog
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • jQuery
  • Adobe Photoshop
  • The MathWorks MATLAB
  • Autodesk 3ds Max
  • Dassault Systemes CATIA
  • Geometric CAMWorks
  • Chaos Group V-Ray
  • Adobe InDesign
  • Microsoft Project
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Maxon Cinema 4D
  • Computer aided manufacturing CAM software
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Midjourney
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Python
  • Corel Painter
  • Microsoft Access
  • Dassault Systemes SolidWorks
  • Apache Maven
  • Recraft
  • Autodesk Revit
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Suno AI
  • LoveArt AI
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Adobe FreeHand MX
  • InVision software
  • Finite element analysis software
  • DeepSeek
  • Adobe After Effects
  • Kapwing
  • Figma
  • Eko
  • ElevenLabs
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • QuarkXPress
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • SAP software
  • Adobe Firefly
  • Udio
  • 1CadCam Unigraphics
  • Perplexity AI
  • Compact digital cameras
  • Desktop computers
  • Laptop computers
  • Personal computers
  • Universal serial bus USB flash drives
  • Liquid crystal display LCD video projectors