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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Aircraft Captain” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #204 of 702. Estimated risk: 18.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

56%

“Aircraft Captain” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 56% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“Aircraft Captain” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $280,570
Available Jobs (US) 99,300
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers #53-2011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Record in log books information, such as flight times, distances flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.

  • Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.

  • Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control to ensure that flights are coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Perform minor maintenance work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Respond to and report in-flight emergencies and malfunctions.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.

  • Make announcements regarding flights, using public address systems.

  • Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Confer with flight dispatchers and weather forecasters to keep abreast of flight conditions.

  • Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.

  • Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.

  • Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.

  • Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.

Technologies & Software

  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • R
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • CoPilot Flight Planning & E6B
  • DeepSeek
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Navzilla
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • AeroPlanner
  • IFT-Pro
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Microsoft Word
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Gatik AI
  • Mobileye AI
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Document Object Model DOM Scripting
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Microsoft Visio
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Desktop computers
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Hydraulic control systems
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Notebook computers
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Autopilot systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Landing gear control systems
  • Flaps control levers
  • Pneumatics systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Manual trim wheels
  • Attitude heading reference systems AHRS
  • Anti-skid control systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS glideslope receivers
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Rudder pedals
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Point plotters
  • Engine anti-ice systems
  • Pressure demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Brake management systems
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Aileron trim switches
  • Microwave landing systems MLS
  • Data load selectors
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Nosewheel steering systems
  • Diluter demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • High-frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Rudder trim knobs
  • Long range navigation LORAN-C systems
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Hydraulic actuators
  • Flight database systems
  • Electric trim switches
  • Aircraft data loaders
  • Radio frequency-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Very high frequency VHF direction finders
  • Control wheels
  • Control display units CDU
  • Pressurization control systems
  • Hydraulic pressure regulators
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Fire extinguishers
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Brake pedals
  • Autobrakes
  • Satellite-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems