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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Commercial Airline Pilot” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #204 of 702. Estimated risk: 18.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

56%

“Commercial Airline Pilot” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 56% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“Commercial Airline Pilot” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $280,570
Available Jobs (US) 99,300
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers #53-2011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Record in log books information, such as flight times, distances flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.

  • Perform minor maintenance work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.

  • Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.

  • Make announcements regarding flights, using public address systems.

  • Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.

  • Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Respond to and report in-flight emergencies and malfunctions.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.

  • Confer with flight dispatchers and weather forecasters to keep abreast of flight conditions.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control to ensure that flights are coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.

Technologies & Software

  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Document Object Model DOM Scripting
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Microsoft Visio
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Microsoft Word
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Gemini (Google)
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • CoPilot Flight Planning & E6B
  • DeepSeek
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Gatik AI
  • Mobileye AI
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • IFT-Pro
  • AeroPlanner
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Microsoft Office software
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Navzilla
  • R
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Fire extinguishers
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • High-frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Electric trim switches
  • Flaps control levers
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Diluter demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Data load selectors
  • Autobrakes
  • Landing gear control systems
  • Pressure demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Notebook computers
  • Control display units CDU
  • Anti-skid control systems
  • Pneumatics systems
  • Aircraft data loaders
  • Pressurization control systems
  • Brake management systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Autopilot systems
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Point plotters
  • Instrument landing system ILS glideslope receivers
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Aileron trim switches
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Satellite-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Attitude heading reference systems AHRS
  • Engine anti-ice systems
  • Manual trim wheels
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Hydraulic control systems
  • Rudder trim knobs
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Nosewheel steering systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Hydraulic pressure regulators
  • Emergency life rafts
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Rudder pedals
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Brake pedals
  • Long range navigation LORAN-C systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Flight database systems
  • Control wheels
  • Radio frequency-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Hydraulic actuators
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Microwave landing systems MLS
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Very high frequency VHF direction finders