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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer (FO)” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #204 of 702. Estimated risk: 18.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

56%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 56% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $280,570
Available Jobs (US) 99,300
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers #53-2011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.

  • Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Perform minor maintenance work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.

  • Respond to and report in-flight emergencies and malfunctions.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Make announcements regarding flights, using public address systems.

  • Record in log books information, such as flight times, distances flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.

  • Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.

  • Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.

  • Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Confer with flight dispatchers and weather forecasters to keep abreast of flight conditions.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control to ensure that flights are coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.

  • Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.

Technologies & Software

  • Microsoft Excel
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • IFT-Pro
  • DeepSeek
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Llama (Meta)
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Microsoft Word
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Gatik AI
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • CoPilot Flight Planning & E6B
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Navzilla
  • AeroPlanner
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Mobileye AI
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Microsoft Visio
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • R
  • Document Object Model DOM Scripting
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Diluter demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Control display units CDU
  • Landing gear control systems
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Brake management systems
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Pneumatics systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Flight database systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • High-frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Aileron trim switches
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Autopilot systems
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS glideslope receivers
  • Fire extinguishers
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Notebook computers
  • Control wheels
  • Radio frequency-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Rudder trim knobs
  • Data load selectors
  • Hydraulic pressure regulators
  • Nosewheel steering systems
  • Satellite-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Hydraulic control systems
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Long range navigation LORAN-C systems
  • Pressure demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Microwave landing systems MLS
  • Pressurization control systems
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Autobrakes
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Electric trim switches
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Very high frequency VHF direction finders
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Flaps control levers
  • Aircraft data loaders
  • Fuel control systems
  • Hydraulic actuators
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Attitude heading reference systems AHRS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Engine anti-ice systems
  • Rudder pedals
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Point plotters
  • Manual trim wheels
  • Anti-skid control systems
  • Brake pedals
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems