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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer (FO)” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #204 of 702. Estimated risk: 18.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

56%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 56% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $280,570
Available Jobs (US) 99,300
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers #53-2011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Respond to and report in-flight emergencies and malfunctions.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Make announcements regarding flights, using public address systems.

  • Perform minor maintenance work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Confer with flight dispatchers and weather forecasters to keep abreast of flight conditions.

  • Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.

  • Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control to ensure that flights are coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.

  • Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.

  • Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.

  • Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.

  • Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.

  • Record in log books information, such as flight times, distances flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.

  • Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

Technologies & Software

  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Document Object Model DOM Scripting
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Microsoft Word
  • DeepSeek
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Mobileye AI
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Navzilla
  • Microsoft Visio
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • IFT-Pro
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Gatik AI
  • AeroPlanner
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Microsoft Office software
  • CoPilot Flight Planning & E6B
  • R
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Satellite-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Diluter demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Electric trim switches
  • Radio frequency-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Autobrakes
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Aileron trim switches
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Flight database systems
  • Very high frequency VHF direction finders
  • Pneumatics systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Rudder trim knobs
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Desktop computers
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Aircraft data loaders
  • Rudder pedals
  • Autopilot systems
  • Manual trim wheels
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Point plotters
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Notebook computers
  • Pressure demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Long range navigation LORAN-C systems
  • Pressurization control systems
  • Hydraulic pressure regulators
  • Flaps control levers
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Instrument landing system ILS glideslope receivers
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Nosewheel steering systems
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Fire extinguishers
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Data load selectors
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Hydraulic actuators
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Anti-skid control systems
  • Microwave landing systems MLS
  • Control display units CDU
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Brake pedals
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Hydraulic control systems
  • Control wheels
  • Attitude heading reference systems AHRS
  • Engine anti-ice systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • On-board intercom systems
  • High-frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Landing gear control systems
  • Brake management systems
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems