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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer (FO)” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #204 of 702. Estimated risk: 18.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

56%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 56% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“First Officer (FO)” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $280,570
Available Jobs (US) 99,300
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers #53-2011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Perform minor maintenance work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.

  • Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.

  • Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control to ensure that flights are coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Respond to and report in-flight emergencies and malfunctions.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.

  • Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Confer with flight dispatchers and weather forecasters to keep abreast of flight conditions.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.

  • Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.

  • Make announcements regarding flights, using public address systems.

  • Record in log books information, such as flight times, distances flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Check passenger and cargo distributions and fuel amounts to ensure that weight and balance specifications are met.

Technologies & Software

  • Microsoft Outlook
  • DeepSeek
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Document Object Model DOM Scripting
  • Microsoft Excel
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • IFT-Pro
  • Mobileye AI
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • AeroPlanner
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • R
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • CoPilot Flight Planning & E6B
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Gatik AI
  • Microsoft Visio
  • Navzilla
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Microsoft Word
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Landing gear control systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Attitude heading reference systems AHRS
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Aileron trim switches
  • Satellite-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Data load selectors
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Hydraulic actuators
  • Rudder pedals
  • Autobrakes
  • Desktop computers
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Nosewheel steering systems
  • Control display units CDU
  • Autopilot systems
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Flaps control levers
  • Engine anti-ice systems
  • Pressurization control systems
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Long range navigation LORAN-C systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Manual trim wheels
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • High-frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Brake management systems
  • Control wheels
  • Anti-skid control systems
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Hydraulic pressure regulators
  • Rudder trim knobs
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Microwave landing systems MLS
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Instrument landing system ILS glideslope receivers
  • Radio frequency-based navigation and guidance systems
  • Fire extinguishers
  • Notebook computers
  • Very high frequency VHF direction finders
  • Brake pedals
  • Point plotters
  • Pneumatics systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Flight database systems
  • Pressure demand emergency oxygen systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Electric trim switches
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Diluter demand emergency oxygen systems
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Hydraulic control systems
  • Aircraft data loaders