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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Air Transport Pilot” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Air Transport Pilot” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Air Transport Pilot” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

Technologies & Software

  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Kitty Hawk
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Navzilla
  • Calibration software
  • Flight simulation software
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Litchi
  • Mobileye AI
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • LP360
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Airdata
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • AeroPlanner
  • Llama (Meta)
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • UgCS
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • DeepSeek
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Gatik AI
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • CloudCompare
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Safety cones
  • Hard hats
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Battery chargers
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Fuel control systems
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Simlat
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Landing pad
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Power brake systems
  • Plotters
  • Reflective vests
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Desktop computers
  • Power generators
  • Air data computers
  • Tablet computers
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Laptop computers
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Multimeters
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Autopilot systems
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Digital multimeters
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Ground control targets
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • DroneDeploy
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Yaw damper systems
  • DroneLogbook
  • Flight simulators
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Anemometers
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Autobrakes
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • De-icing equipment
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Handheld calculators
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Personal computers