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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Pilot” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Pilot” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Pilot” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

Technologies & Software

  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Litchi
  • Calibration software
  • UgCS
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Microsoft Office software
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • DeepSeek
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Kitty Hawk
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • LP360
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Aeronautical charts
  • CloudCompare
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Airdata
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Gatik AI
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • OpenDroneMap
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Navzilla
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • AeroPlanner
  • Mobileye AI
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Flight simulation software
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Anemometers
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Simlat
  • Hard hats
  • Desktop computers
  • Flight simulators
  • DroneLogbook
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Plotters
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Autobrakes
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Safety cones
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Digital multimeters
  • Autopilot systems
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • DroneDeploy
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Battery chargers
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Power generators
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Power brake systems
  • De-icing equipment
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Personal computers
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Air data computers
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Reflective vests
  • Handheld calculators
  • Multimeters
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Ground control targets
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Landing pad
  • Laptop computers
  • Tablet computers
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Inertial navigation systems INS