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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Commercial Pilot” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Commercial Pilot” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Commercial Pilot” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

Technologies & Software

  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Calibration software
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • DeepSeek
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • CloudCompare
  • Flight simulation software
  • LP360
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Litchi
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Navzilla
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Mobileye AI
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Kitty Hawk
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Airdata
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Llama (Meta)
  • AeroPlanner
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Gatik AI
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • Grok (xAI)
  • UgCS
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Power brake systems
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Autobrakes
  • De-icing equipment
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Ground control targets
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Power generators
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Air data computers
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Digital multimeters
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Multimeters
  • Tablet computers
  • Laptop computers
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Hard hats
  • Anemometers
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • DroneDeploy
  • Handheld calculators
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Simlat
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Flight simulators
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • DroneLogbook
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Autopilot systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Air conditioning systems
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Landing pad
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Reflective vests
  • Personal computers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Battery chargers
  • Plotters
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Safety cones
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Desktop computers