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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Aviator” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Aviator” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Aviator” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

Technologies & Software

  • Gemini (Google)
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Kitty Hawk
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Calibration software
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Airdata
  • Litchi
  • Gatik AI
  • OpenDroneMap
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Navzilla
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Flight simulation software
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • DeepSeek
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Mobileye AI
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Grok (xAI)
  • LP360
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • CloudCompare
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • UgCS
  • AeroPlanner
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Personal computers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • DroneDeploy
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • DroneLogbook
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Flight simulators
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Reflective vests
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Multimeters
  • Autobrakes
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Autopilot systems
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Air data computers
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Digital multimeters
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Ground control targets
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Battery chargers
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Laptop computers
  • Plotters
  • Power brake systems
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Simlat
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Landing pad
  • Handheld calculators
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Power generators
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Safety cones
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Tablet computers
  • DJI GS Pro
  • De-icing equipment
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Anemometers
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Hard hats
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems