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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Captain” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

Technologies & Software

  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Kitty Hawk
  • CloudCompare
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Flight simulation software
  • Calibration software
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • LP360
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • AeroPlanner
  • Microsoft Office software
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Gatik AI
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Navzilla
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Litchi
  • OpenDroneMap
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Llama (Meta)
  • UgCS
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Airdata
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Grok (xAI)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • DeepSeek
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Mobileye AI
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Reflective vests
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Flight simulators
  • DroneDeploy
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Ground control targets
  • Landing pad
  • Laptop computers
  • Power brake systems
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Plotters
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Simlat
  • Oil filter pliers
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Air data computers
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Fuel control systems
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Autobrakes
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Multimeters
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Autopilot systems
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Battery chargers
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Emergency exit slides
  • De-icing equipment
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Tablet computers
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Safety cones
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Personal computers
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Hard hats
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Digital multimeters
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Anemometers
  • Desktop computers
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Handheld calculators
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Channel lock pliers
  • DroneLogbook
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Power generators