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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Captain” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

Technologies & Software

  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Airdata
  • Gemini (Google)
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Litchi
  • Calibration software
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Gatik AI
  • Grok (xAI)
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Kitty Hawk
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • LP360
  • Navzilla
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Mobileye AI
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • OpenDroneMap
  • DeepSeek
  • AeroPlanner
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • UgCS
  • CloudCompare
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Flight simulation software
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • De-icing equipment
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Safety cones
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Autobrakes
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Power brake systems
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Personal computers
  • Autopilot systems
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Anemometers
  • Landing pad
  • Laptop computers
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Battery chargers
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Air data computers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Hard hats
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Reflective vests
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Flight simulators
  • Tablet computers
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Simlat
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Plotters
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Digital multimeters
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Fuel control systems
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Power generators
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Ground control targets
  • Multimeters
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • DroneDeploy
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • DroneLogbook
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Handheld calculators