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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

Technologies & Software

  • Gemini (Google)
  • CloudCompare
  • Calibration software
  • LP360
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Mobileye AI
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Navzilla
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Llama (Meta)
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Microsoft Office software
  • UgCS
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Flight simulation software
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Kitty Hawk
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Airdata
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Litchi
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • AeroPlanner
  • DeepSeek
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • Grok (xAI)
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Gatik AI
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Ground control targets
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Fuel control systems
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Landing pad
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • DroneLogbook
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Multimeters
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • DroneDeploy
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Air data computers
  • Plotters
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Tablet computers
  • Autobrakes
  • Battery chargers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Hard hats
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Power brake systems
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • De-icing equipment
  • Laptop computers
  • Flight simulators
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Anemometers
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Handheld calculators
  • Safety cones
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Power generators
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Digital multimeters
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Autopilot systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Simlat
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Personal computers
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Reflective vests