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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

Technologies & Software

  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • DeepSeek
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • UgCS
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • Llama (Meta)
  • AeroPlanner
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Airdata
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Flight simulation software
  • LP360
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • Microsoft Office software
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Grok (xAI)
  • CloudCompare
  • Mobileye AI
  • Calibration software
  • Litchi
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Navzilla
  • Kitty Hawk
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Gatik AI
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Air data computers
  • Desktop computers
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Digital multimeters
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Anemometers
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Automatic landing systems
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Ground control targets
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Handheld calculators
  • Reflective vests
  • Hard hats
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Autopilot systems
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Flight simulators
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Multimeters
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Personal computers
  • Safety cones
  • Power brake systems
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Tablet computers
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Simlat
  • Landing pad
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Fuel control systems
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Anti-skid systems
  • De-icing equipment
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Air pressurization systems
  • DroneLogbook
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Power generators
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Plotters
  • Autobrakes
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • DroneDeploy
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Laptop computers
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Battery chargers
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems