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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “First Officer” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“First Officer” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

Technologies & Software

  • LP360
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • UgCS
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • Airdata
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • DeepSeek
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Gatik AI
  • AeroPlanner
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Flight simulation software
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Litchi
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Kitty Hawk
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Calibration software
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Mobileye AI
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • Navzilla
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • CloudCompare
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Safety cones
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME
  • Digital multimeters
  • DroneDeploy
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • DroneLogbook
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Plotters
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Hard hats
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Yaw damper systems
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Battery chargers
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Oil filter pliers
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Ground control targets
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Anemometers
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Power generators
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Fuel control systems
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • Air data computers
  • Multimeters
  • Flight simulators
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Simlat
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Power brake systems
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Autopilot systems
  • Personal computers
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Tablet computers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Autobrakes
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Landing pad
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Reflective vests
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • De-icing equipment
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Handheld calculators
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Laptop computers
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • On-board intercom systems