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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Captain” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #314 of 702. Estimated risk: 55.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

59%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 59% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

62%

“Captain” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 62% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Commercial Pilots, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

Avg. Annual Salary $142,960
Available Jobs (US) 51,830
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Commercial Pilots #53-2012
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Commercial Pilots”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.

  • Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.

  • Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.

  • Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.

  • Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.

  • Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.

  • Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.

  • Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.

  • Supervise other crew members.

  • Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.

  • Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.

  • Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.

  • Rescue and evacuate injured persons.

  • Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.

  • Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.

  • File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.

  • Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

  • Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.

  • Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.

  • Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.

  • Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.

  • Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.

  • Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.

  • Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.

Technologies & Software

  • Polaris Microsystems CharterLog
  • Skylog Services Skylog Pro
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Gatik AI
  • SBS International Maestro Suite
  • Nimblefeet Technologies Captain's Keeper
  • DeepSeek
  • FLIR Thermal Studio Suite
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Airline Pilots Daily Aviation Log PPC
  • Llama (Meta)
  • RMS Technology Flitesoft
  • Waymo (Autonomous Driving)
  • Kitty Hawk
  • ESRI Site Scan for ArcGIS
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Notam Development Group Airport Insight
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Standard generalized markup language SGML
  • Project44 AI Logistics
  • CloudCompare
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Mobileye AI
  • Polaris Microsystems AeroLog Pro
  • AeroPlanner
  • LP360
  • Pilot Navigator Software Load Balance
  • Adobe Creative Cloud software
  • Pix4D Pix4Dmapper
  • Airdata
  • Pix4D Pix4Dcapture
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Calibration software
  • doXstor Flight Level Logbook
  • Litchi
  • ArduPilot Mission Planner
  • AirSmith FlightPrompt
  • Electronic aircraft information databases
  • Flight simulation software
  • UgCS
  • MJICCS PilotLog
  • Aeronautical charts
  • Tesla Autopilot
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • OpenDroneMap
  • Navzilla
  • Tablet computers
  • Passenger oxygen control systems
  • Very high frequency omnidirectional range VOR systems
  • Hard hats
  • Engine indicating and crew alerting systems EICAS
  • Fuel control systems
  • Local area augmentation system LAAS receivers
  • Laptop computers
  • Air data computers
  • Head-up guidance systems HGS
  • Battery chargers
  • Anemometers
  • Nondirectional radio beacon markers
  • DJI GS Pro
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Engine fire extinguishing systems
  • Very high frequency VHF radio communication systems
  • DroneLogbook
  • Long range navigation systems LRNS
  • Airfield lighting equipment
  • Global positioning system GPS devices
  • Autobrakes
  • Multimeters
  • Fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • De-icing equipment
  • Automatic direction finder ADF radio systems
  • Microwave landing system MLS receivers
  • Emergency pressurization systems
  • Flight simulators
  • Instrument landing system ILS localizers
  • Autopilot systems
  • Power generation and distribution control systems
  • Oil filter wrenches
  • Portable collision avoidance systems PCAS
  • Hydraulic landing gear systems
  • Power generators
  • Windscreen ice control systems
  • Wing anti-ice systems
  • High frequency HF radio communication systems
  • Flight director FD systems
  • Air conditioning systems
  • Fire suppression and control systems
  • Desktop computers
  • Digital multimeters
  • Equipment cooling controls
  • Cockpit displays of traffic information CDTI
  • Electro-hydraulic control systems
  • Multipurpose fire extinguishers
  • Electronic flight instrument systems EFIS
  • Emergency exit slides
  • Emergency life rafts
  • Power brake systems
  • Air pressurization systems
  • Continuous flow emergency oxygen systems
  • Ground proximity warning systems GPWS
  • Ground control targets
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Digital communications display units DCDU
  • Vise grip pliers
  • Yaw damper systems
  • DroneDeploy
  • Oil filter pliers
  • Multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles UAV
  • Engine anti-icing equipment
  • Reflective vests
  • Handheld calculators
  • Navigation mode selectors
  • Engine fire detection systems
  • Safety cones
  • Inertial navigation systems INS
  • Flight management systems FMS
  • Transponder landing systems TLS
  • Stability augmentation systems SAS
  • Recirculation control systems
  • Mechanical nose wheel steering systems
  • Simlat
  • On-board intercom systems
  • Plotters
  • Pneumatic emergency brake systems
  • Landing pad
  • Automatic landing systems
  • Airborne collision avoidance systems ACAS
  • Instrument landing system ILS receivers
  • Ultra high frequency UHF radio communication systems
  • Personal computers
  • Spectrum analyzers
  • Traffic alert and collision avoidance system TCAS
  • Anti-skid systems
  • Distance measuring equipment DME