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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Manual Machinist” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #358 of 702. Estimated risk: 65.0%

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AI Exposure Risk

51%

“Manual Machinist” will maybe be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 51% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

65%

“Manual Machinist” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 65% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Machinists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Set up and operate a variety of machine tools to produce precision parts and instruments out of metal. Includes precision instrument makers who fabricate, modify, or repair mechanical instruments. May also fabricate and modify parts to make or repair machine tools or maintain industrial machines, applying knowledge of mechanics, mathematics, metal properties, layout, and machining procedures.

Avg. Annual Salary $57,390
Avg. Hourly Wage $27.59
Available Jobs (US) 298,790
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Machinists #51-4041
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Machinists”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers.

  • Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs.

  • Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process.

  • Install experimental parts or assemblies, such as hydraulic systems, electrical wiring, lubricants, or batteries into machines or mechanisms.

  • Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.

  • Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders.

  • Fit and assemble parts to make or repair machine tools.

  • Advise clients about the materials being used for finished products.

  • Evaluate machining procedures and recommend changes or modifications for improved efficiency or adaptability.

  • Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.

  • Set up or operate metalworking, brazing, heat-treating, welding, or cutting equipment.

  • Confer with numerical control programmers to check and ensure that new programs or machinery will function properly and that output will meet specifications.

  • Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations.

  • Lay out, measure, and mark metal stock to display placement of cuts.

  • Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines.

  • Separate scrap waste and related materials for reuse, recycling, or disposal.

  • Prepare working sketches for the illustration of product appearance.

  • Test experimental models under simulated operating conditions, for purposes such as development, standardization, or feasibility of design.

  • Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition.

  • Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.

  • Install repaired parts into equipment or install new equipment.

  • Establish work procedures for fabricating new structural products, using a variety of metalworking machines.

  • Support metalworking projects from planning and fabrication through assembly, inspection, and testing, using knowledge of machine functions, metal properties, and mathematics.

  • Check work pieces to ensure that they are properly lubricated or cooled.

  • Dispose of scrap or waste material in accordance with company policies and environmental regulations.

  • Operate equipment to verify operational efficiency.

  • Diagnose machine tool malfunctions to determine need for adjustments or repairs.

  • Confer with engineering, supervisory, or manufacturing personnel to exchange technical information.

  • Dismantle machines or equipment, using hand tools or power tools to examine parts for defects and replace defective parts where needed.

Technologies & Software

  • Rockwell Automation AI
  • Mistral (Mistral AI)
  • Kentech Kipware Trig Kalculator
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Kimi (Moonshot AI)
  • CNC Consulting Machinists' Calculator
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Cognex Vision AI
  • Nova (Amazon)
  • Gemini (Google)
  • Microsoft Word
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Computer aided design CAD software
  • Grok (xAI)
  • Hexagon Metrology PC-DMIS
  • Dassault Systemes SolidWorks
  • OnShape
  • Computer aided manufacturing CAM software
  • Autodesk Fusion 360
  • Vero Software SURFCAM
  • Qwen (Alibaba)
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • ERP software
  • Armchair Machinist software
  • CNC Mastercam
  • IMSI TurboCAD
  • JETCAM
  • OneCNC CAD/CAM
  • DeepSeek
  • G-code
  • PTC Creo Parametric
  • JobBOSS
  • Mazak Mazatrol SMART CNC
  • Autodesk AutoCAD
  • 3D Printing software
  • SAP software
  • Siemens NX
  • SolidCAM CAM software
  • Sight Machine AI
  • Siemens Industrial AI
  • Dassault Systemes CATIA
  • Mastercam computer-aided design and manufacturing software
  • Microsoft Excel
  • ABB AI Robotics
  • GRZ Software MeshCAM
  • Claude (Anthropic)
  • Autodesk HSMWorks
  • EditCNC
  • Llama (Meta)
  • Kentech Kipware Studio
  • Steel wedges
  • Half-round files
  • Hand saws
  • Shapers
  • Bandsaws
  • Vernier bevel protractors
  • Platforms
  • Turning lathes
  • Desktop computers
  • Reamers
  • Vernier calipers
  • Metal cutting taps
  • Swaging tools
  • Grinding dogs
  • Sandblasters
  • Threading machines
  • Handheld welders
  • Magnetic retrievers
  • Full face shields
  • Micrometers
  • Scribers
  • Screw pitch gauges
  • Power sanders
  • Outside micrometers
  • Hacksaws
  • Sledgehammers
  • Staging equipment
  • Welding lenses
  • Single-cut mill saw files
  • Milling angle form cutters
  • Centrifugal spin casters
  • Putty knives
  • Power hacksaws
  • Aviation snips
  • Grinding wheel arbors
  • Oxyacetylene welding equipment
  • Steel rules
  • Multi-axis computerized numerical control CNC machines
  • Hex wrenches
  • Pipe wrenches
  • Sensitive drill presses
  • Phillips head screwdrivers
  • Brazing equipment
  • Vernier height gauges
  • Heat-treating equipment
  • Plasma welders
  • Laser printers
  • Torches
  • Jointers
  • Hydraulic presses
  • Socket wrench sets
  • Coordinate measuring machines CMM
  • Crankshaft grinders
  • Feeler gauges
  • Cylinder honers
  • Thread gauges
  • Angled feeler gauges
  • Surface gauges
  • Beverly shears
  • Cold saws
  • Spindle blade screwdrivers
  • Combination drills
  • Cylindrical grinders
  • Ratchet sets
  • Knee mills
  • Arbor presses
  • Telescoping gauges
  • Parallel blocks
  • Combination pliers
  • Brake presses
  • Horizontal mills
  • Radial drills
  • Metal spray equipment
  • Computerized numerical control CNC turning lathes
  • Square chisels
  • Shears
  • Surface grinding machines
  • Undercut tools
  • Sine bars
  • Broachers
  • Composition hammers
  • Calipers
  • Planers
  • Boring bars
  • Ladders
  • Resurfacing machines
  • Gauges
  • Side cutting pliers
  • Metal shears
  • Pipe threaders
  • Metal inert gas MIG welders
  • Hermaphrodite calipers
  • Center drills
  • Height gauges
  • Boring tools
  • Combination wrenches
  • Grinders
  • Buffers
  • Soldering equipment
  • Milling machines
  • Hand clamps
  • Hex keys
  • Spirit levels
  • Flat files
  • Personal computers
  • Planer gauges
  • Rubber mallets
  • Machine shop rigging equipment
  • Angle plates
  • Anvils
  • Horizontal boring bars
  • Lathes
  • Prick punches
  • Binocular light compound microscopes
  • Edge finders
  • Valve grinding machines
  • Vertical turret lathes VTL
  • Portable welding equipment
  • Computerized numerical control CNC machining centers
  • Machinists' squares
  • Flywheel lathes
  • Vernier gear tooth calipers
  • Channel lock pliers
  • Machinists' hammers
  • Pry bars
  • Forklifts
  • Chamfer tools
  • Breaker lathes
  • Marking blocks
  • Drum lathes
  • Welding shields
  • Engine lathes
  • Cold chisels
  • Cutoff saws
  • Tungsten inert gas TIG welding equipment
  • Ball peen hammers
  • Dial calipers
  • V blocks
  • Inside micrometers
  • Chippers
  • Inside spring calipers
  • Vertical milling machines
  • Sharpening equipment
  • Pillar drill machines
  • Utility knives
  • Personal digital assistants PDA
  • Shims
  • Turret lathes
  • Workshop cranes
  • Radius gauges
  • Needlenose pliers
  • Outside spring calipers
  • Screwdrivers
  • Punches
  • Chucks
  • Wedges
  • Deburring tools
  • Brass hammers
  • Adjustable wrenches
  • Dial indicators
  • Ring gauges
  • 3-axis computerized numerical control CNC machines
  • Radial drill presses
  • Tongs
  • Power drills
  • Horizontal lathes
  • Milling vises
  • Tube benders
  • Shielded arc welding tools