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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Bread and Pastry Baker” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #169 of 702. Estimated risk: 10.0%

Directly assessed by researchers as unlikely to be automatable
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AI Exposure Risk

48%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will probably not be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 48% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Chefs and Head Cooks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Direct and may participate in the preparation, seasoning, and cooking of salads, soups, fish, meats, vegetables, desserts, or other foods. May plan and price menu items, order supplies, and keep records and accounts.

Avg. Annual Salary $64,720
Avg. Hourly Wage $31.11
Available Jobs (US) 182,320
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Chefs and Head Cooks #35-1011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Chefs and Head Cooks”

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Related Occupations & Automation Risk

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

AI Risk 49%
Robot Risk 49%

Food Servers, Nonrestaurant

AI Risk 48%
Robot Risk 47%

Fast Food and Counter Workers

AI Risk 46%
Robot Risk 38%

Food Preparation Workers

AI Risk 45%
Robot Risk 42%

Cooks, Private Household

AI Risk 44%
Robot Risk 45%

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

AI Risk 43%
Robot Risk 45%

Core Skills & Abilities

  • Supervise or coordinate activities of cooks or workers engaged in food preparation.

  • Determine how food should be presented and create decorative food displays.

  • Inspect supplies, equipment, or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards.

  • Collaborate with other personnel to plan and develop recipes or menus, taking into account such factors as seasonal availability of ingredients or the likely number of customers.

  • Instruct cooks or other workers in the preparation, cooking, garnishing, or presentation of food.

  • Record production or operational data on specified forms.

  • Order or requisition food or other supplies needed to ensure efficient operation.

  • Meet with customers to discuss menus for special occasions, such as weddings, parties, or banquets.

  • Plan, direct, or supervise food preparation or cooking activities of multiple kitchens or restaurants in an establishment such as a restaurant chain, hospital, or hotel.

  • Coordinate planning, budgeting, or purchasing for all the food operations within establishments such as clubs, hotels, or restaurant chains.

  • Analyze recipes to assign prices to menu items, based on food, labor, and overhead costs.

  • Demonstrate new cooking techniques or equipment to staff.

  • Check the quality of raw or cooked food products to ensure that standards are met.

  • Prepare and cook foods of all types, either on a regular basis or for special guests or functions.

  • Estimate amounts and costs of required supplies, such as food and ingredients.

  • Recruit and hire staff, such as cooks and other kitchen workers.

  • Check the quantity and quality of received products.

  • Meet with sales representatives to negotiate prices or order supplies.

  • Monitor sanitation practices to ensure that employees follow standards and regulations.

  • Determine production schedules and staff requirements necessary to ensure timely delivery of services.

  • Arrange for equipment purchases or repairs.

Technologies & Software

  • ADP eTIME
  • CostGuard
  • Delphi Technology
  • Toast AI
  • Culinary Software Services ChefTec
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Internet browser software
  • GNOME Gnutrition
  • SoftCafe MenuPro
  • Microsoft Word
  • Flippy (Miso Robotics)
  • Axxya Systems Nutritionist Pro
  • Google Sheets
  • Barrington Software CookenPro Commercial
  • IPro Restaurant Inventory, Recipe & Menu Software
  • Nutrition analysis software
  • GroupMe
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Sage MAS 90 ERP
  • Facebook
  • Enggist & Grandjean EGS F&B Control
  • Microsoft Office software
  • ReServe Interactive
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • EGS CALCMENU
  • Menu planning software
  • Email software
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Commercial coffeemakers
  • Meat thermometers
  • Carbonated beverage dispensers
  • Serrated blade knives
  • Commercial microwave ovens
  • Personal computers
  • Hot dog cookers
  • Desktop computers
  • Juice extractors
  • Pizza ovens
  • Blenders
  • Toasters
  • Garbage compactors
  • Sieves
  • Waffle makers
  • Bone saws
  • Electric deep-fat fryers
  • Electric ovens
  • Kitchen tongs
  • Vegetable brushes
  • Braziers
  • Fire suppression blankets
  • Blast chillers
  • Broilers
  • Oyster knives
  • Instant-read pocket thermometers
  • Rolling pins
  • Plane graters
  • Meat slicers
  • Double boilers
  • Pasta machines
  • Pressurized steam cookers
  • Rotisserie units
  • Juice dispensers
  • Strainers
  • Commercial coffee grinders
  • Steam tables
  • Ice shaving or crushing equipment
  • Salamanders
  • Paring knives
  • Box graters
  • Laptop computers
  • Knife sharpeners
  • Parisian cutters
  • Mixers
  • Cake decorating tools
  • Apple corers
  • Grills
  • Kitchen shears
  • Food processors
  • Bread slicers
  • Gas ovens
  • Rice cookers
  • Woks
  • Fruit zesters
  • Cream whippers
  • Refrigerator thermometers
  • Vegetable peelers
  • Griddles
  • Conveyer ovens
  • Food smokers
  • Food shredders
  • Portion scales
  • Mandolines
  • Gas-powered deep-fat fryers
  • Food dicers
  • Slicing machines
  • Cappuccino makers
  • Electric stoves
  • Steam kettles
  • Commercial dishwashers
  • Melon ballers
  • Dry or liquid measuring cups
  • Convection ovens
  • Kitchen fire extinguishers
  • Ice-making machines
  • Gas stoves
  • Boning knives
  • Meat grinders
  • Chefs' knives
  • Infrared heat lamps
  • Sifters

Alternative Job Titles