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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Bread and Pastry Baker” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #169 of 702. Estimated risk: 10.0%

Directly assessed by researchers as unlikely to be automatable
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AI Exposure Risk

48%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will probably not be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 48% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Chefs and Head Cooks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Direct and may participate in the preparation, seasoning, and cooking of salads, soups, fish, meats, vegetables, desserts, or other foods. May plan and price menu items, order supplies, and keep records and accounts.

Avg. Annual Salary $64,720
Avg. Hourly Wage $31.11
Available Jobs (US) 182,320
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Chefs and Head Cooks #35-1011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Chefs and Head Cooks”

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Related Occupations & Automation Risk

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

AI Risk 49%
Robot Risk 49%

Food Servers, Nonrestaurant

AI Risk 48%
Robot Risk 47%

Fast Food and Counter Workers

AI Risk 46%
Robot Risk 38%

Food Preparation Workers

AI Risk 45%
Robot Risk 42%

Cooks, Private Household

AI Risk 44%
Robot Risk 45%

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

AI Risk 43%
Robot Risk 45%

Core Skills & Abilities

  • Determine how food should be presented and create decorative food displays.

  • Recruit and hire staff, such as cooks and other kitchen workers.

  • Prepare and cook foods of all types, either on a regular basis or for special guests or functions.

  • Analyze recipes to assign prices to menu items, based on food, labor, and overhead costs.

  • Determine production schedules and staff requirements necessary to ensure timely delivery of services.

  • Coordinate planning, budgeting, or purchasing for all the food operations within establishments such as clubs, hotels, or restaurant chains.

  • Check the quantity and quality of received products.

  • Meet with sales representatives to negotiate prices or order supplies.

  • Demonstrate new cooking techniques or equipment to staff.

  • Monitor sanitation practices to ensure that employees follow standards and regulations.

  • Record production or operational data on specified forms.

  • Arrange for equipment purchases or repairs.

  • Plan, direct, or supervise food preparation or cooking activities of multiple kitchens or restaurants in an establishment such as a restaurant chain, hospital, or hotel.

  • Supervise or coordinate activities of cooks or workers engaged in food preparation.

  • Meet with customers to discuss menus for special occasions, such as weddings, parties, or banquets.

  • Collaborate with other personnel to plan and develop recipes or menus, taking into account such factors as seasonal availability of ingredients or the likely number of customers.

  • Instruct cooks or other workers in the preparation, cooking, garnishing, or presentation of food.

  • Inspect supplies, equipment, or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards.

  • Estimate amounts and costs of required supplies, such as food and ingredients.

  • Check the quality of raw or cooked food products to ensure that standards are met.

  • Order or requisition food or other supplies needed to ensure efficient operation.

Technologies & Software

  • Menu planning software
  • IPro Restaurant Inventory, Recipe & Menu Software
  • Toast AI
  • Culinary Software Services ChefTec
  • Nutrition analysis software
  • Internet browser software
  • ReServe Interactive
  • Barrington Software CookenPro Commercial
  • SoftCafe MenuPro
  • Microsoft Word
  • EGS CALCMENU
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • Enggist & Grandjean EGS F&B Control
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Delphi Technology
  • Facebook
  • Sage MAS 90 ERP
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Microsoft Office software
  • ADP eTIME
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Google Sheets
  • Email software
  • CostGuard
  • Microsoft Excel
  • GroupMe
  • GNOME Gnutrition
  • Axxya Systems Nutritionist Pro
  • Flippy (Miso Robotics)
  • Grills
  • Electric deep-fat fryers
  • Juice dispensers
  • Toasters
  • Portion scales
  • Steam tables
  • Kitchen fire extinguishers
  • Carbonated beverage dispensers
  • Knife sharpeners
  • Electric ovens
  • Commercial coffee grinders
  • Rolling pins
  • Rice cookers
  • Fire suppression blankets
  • Gas stoves
  • Chefs' knives
  • Paring knives
  • Gas-powered deep-fat fryers
  • Vegetable brushes
  • Pasta machines
  • Kitchen tongs
  • Mandolines
  • Infrared heat lamps
  • Box graters
  • Melon ballers
  • Instant-read pocket thermometers
  • Mixers
  • Dry or liquid measuring cups
  • Strainers
  • Sifters
  • Bone saws
  • Boning knives
  • Blast chillers
  • Desktop computers
  • Ice shaving or crushing equipment
  • Gas ovens
  • Steam kettles
  • Broilers
  • Double boilers
  • Salamanders
  • Serrated blade knives
  • Vegetable peelers
  • Fruit zesters
  • Waffle makers
  • Hot dog cookers
  • Commercial microwave ovens
  • Cake decorating tools
  • Slicing machines
  • Pizza ovens
  • Bread slicers
  • Food shredders
  • Woks
  • Cappuccino makers
  • Meat slicers
  • Meat grinders
  • Commercial coffeemakers
  • Plane graters
  • Cream whippers
  • Meat thermometers
  • Convection ovens
  • Laptop computers
  • Apple corers
  • Ice-making machines
  • Griddles
  • Garbage compactors
  • Rotisserie units
  • Food smokers
  • Food processors
  • Personal computers
  • Electric stoves
  • Refrigerator thermometers
  • Juice extractors
  • Kitchen shears
  • Sieves
  • Conveyer ovens
  • Blenders
  • Braziers
  • Parisian cutters
  • Food dicers
  • Oyster knives
  • Commercial dishwashers
  • Pressurized steam cookers

Alternative Job Titles