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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Bread and Pastry Baker” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #169 of 702. Estimated risk: 10.0%

Directly assessed by researchers as unlikely to be automatable
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AI Exposure Risk

48%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will probably not be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 48% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Bread and Pastry Baker” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Chefs and Head Cooks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Direct and may participate in the preparation, seasoning, and cooking of salads, soups, fish, meats, vegetables, desserts, or other foods. May plan and price menu items, order supplies, and keep records and accounts.

Avg. Annual Salary $64,720
Avg. Hourly Wage $31.11
Available Jobs (US) 182,320
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Chefs and Head Cooks #35-1011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Chefs and Head Cooks”

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Core Skills & Abilities

  • Check the quality of raw or cooked food products to ensure that standards are met.

  • Check the quantity and quality of received products.

  • Determine how food should be presented and create decorative food displays.

  • Determine production schedules and staff requirements necessary to ensure timely delivery of services.

  • Plan, direct, or supervise food preparation or cooking activities of multiple kitchens or restaurants in an establishment such as a restaurant chain, hospital, or hotel.

  • Order or requisition food or other supplies needed to ensure efficient operation.

  • Arrange for equipment purchases or repairs.

  • Supervise or coordinate activities of cooks or workers engaged in food preparation.

  • Inspect supplies, equipment, or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards.

  • Recruit and hire staff, such as cooks and other kitchen workers.

  • Estimate amounts and costs of required supplies, such as food and ingredients.

  • Demonstrate new cooking techniques or equipment to staff.

  • Coordinate planning, budgeting, or purchasing for all the food operations within establishments such as clubs, hotels, or restaurant chains.

  • Instruct cooks or other workers in the preparation, cooking, garnishing, or presentation of food.

  • Monitor sanitation practices to ensure that employees follow standards and regulations.

  • Record production or operational data on specified forms.

  • Analyze recipes to assign prices to menu items, based on food, labor, and overhead costs.

  • Prepare and cook foods of all types, either on a regular basis or for special guests or functions.

  • Meet with customers to discuss menus for special occasions, such as weddings, parties, or banquets.

  • Collaborate with other personnel to plan and develop recipes or menus, taking into account such factors as seasonal availability of ingredients or the likely number of customers.

  • Meet with sales representatives to negotiate prices or order supplies.

Technologies & Software

  • Flippy (Miso Robotics)
  • Microsoft Word
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • Internet browser software
  • GroupMe
  • Menu planning software
  • Toast AI
  • Microsoft Excel
  • GNOME Gnutrition
  • Axxya Systems Nutritionist Pro
  • ADP eTIME
  • Nutrition analysis software
  • Facebook
  • Microsoft Office software
  • Culinary Software Services ChefTec
  • Sage MAS 90 ERP
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • SoftCafe MenuPro
  • EGS CALCMENU
  • CostGuard
  • Email software
  • Google Sheets
  • Delphi Technology
  • Enggist & Grandjean EGS F&B Control
  • IPro Restaurant Inventory, Recipe & Menu Software
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Barrington Software CookenPro Commercial
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • ReServe Interactive
  • Commercial microwave ovens
  • Pizza ovens
  • Commercial coffeemakers
  • Vegetable brushes
  • Juice extractors
  • Toasters
  • Blast chillers
  • Salamanders
  • Oyster knives
  • Hot dog cookers
  • Fire suppression blankets
  • Carbonated beverage dispensers
  • Box graters
  • Strainers
  • Gas stoves
  • Paring knives
  • Bread slicers
  • Instant-read pocket thermometers
  • Juice dispensers
  • Pasta machines
  • Ice shaving or crushing equipment
  • Desktop computers
  • Portion scales
  • Ice-making machines
  • Boning knives
  • Commercial coffee grinders
  • Knife sharpeners
  • Double boilers
  • Gas-powered deep-fat fryers
  • Electric stoves
  • Pressurized steam cookers
  • Meat thermometers
  • Refrigerator thermometers
  • Sieves
  • Infrared heat lamps
  • Cappuccino makers
  • Rolling pins
  • Electric deep-fat fryers
  • Conveyer ovens
  • Electric ovens
  • Braziers
  • Bone saws
  • Food shredders
  • Melon ballers
  • Steam tables
  • Woks
  • Dry or liquid measuring cups
  • Griddles
  • Personal computers
  • Chefs' knives
  • Food smokers
  • Fruit zesters
  • Kitchen shears
  • Parisian cutters
  • Blenders
  • Vegetable peelers
  • Rotisserie units
  • Grills
  • Convection ovens
  • Rice cookers
  • Gas ovens
  • Meat grinders
  • Broilers
  • Waffle makers
  • Kitchen tongs
  • Plane graters
  • Sifters
  • Cream whippers
  • Laptop computers
  • Mandolines
  • Meat slicers
  • Food dicers
  • Commercial dishwashers
  • Steam kettles
  • Serrated blade knives
  • Mixers
  • Kitchen fire extinguishers
  • Cake decorating tools
  • Food processors
  • Apple corers
  • Slicing machines
  • Garbage compactors