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Automation Risk Analysis

Will “Pastry Chef” be Automated?

Historical Context: Oxford Study (2013)

Ranked #169 of 702. Estimated risk: 10.0%

Directly assessed by researchers as unlikely to be automatable
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AI Exposure Risk

48%

“Pastry Chef” will probably not be replaced by AI.

Based on the cognitive demands, communication requirements, and logical reasoning intrinsic to this occupation according to O*NET data, we project a 48% probability of disruption by generative AI and Large Language Models.

Automation & Robot Risk

51%

“Pastry Chef” will maybe be replaced by robots.

Evaluating the physical dexterity, repetitive motion tasks, and manual labor associated with this role, our analysis indicates a 51% likelihood of substitution by advanced robotics systems.

Personal & Financial Insights

Every occupation has a unique profile. For Chefs and Head Cooks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET classify the day-to-day work broadly as: Direct and may participate in the preparation, seasoning, and cooking of salads, soups, fish, meats, vegetables, desserts, or other foods. May plan and price menu items, order supplies, and keep records and accounts.

Avg. Annual Salary $64,720
Avg. Hourly Wage $31.11
Available Jobs (US) 182,320
Job Title & Hierarchy Code (SOC) Chefs and Head Cooks #35-1011
Wage vs. National Median
ℹ️

Data is based on the reference occupation: “Chefs and Head Cooks”

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Related Occupations & Automation Risk

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

AI Risk 49%
Robot Risk 49%

Food Servers, Nonrestaurant

AI Risk 48%
Robot Risk 47%

Fast Food and Counter Workers

AI Risk 46%
Robot Risk 38%

Food Preparation Workers

AI Risk 45%
Robot Risk 42%

Cooks, Private Household

AI Risk 44%
Robot Risk 45%

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

AI Risk 43%
Robot Risk 45%

Core Skills & Abilities

  • Estimate amounts and costs of required supplies, such as food and ingredients.

  • Determine how food should be presented and create decorative food displays.

  • Supervise or coordinate activities of cooks or workers engaged in food preparation.

  • Analyze recipes to assign prices to menu items, based on food, labor, and overhead costs.

  • Coordinate planning, budgeting, or purchasing for all the food operations within establishments such as clubs, hotels, or restaurant chains.

  • Instruct cooks or other workers in the preparation, cooking, garnishing, or presentation of food.

  • Monitor sanitation practices to ensure that employees follow standards and regulations.

  • Prepare and cook foods of all types, either on a regular basis or for special guests or functions.

  • Inspect supplies, equipment, or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards.

  • Demonstrate new cooking techniques or equipment to staff.

  • Meet with sales representatives to negotiate prices or order supplies.

  • Recruit and hire staff, such as cooks and other kitchen workers.

  • Meet with customers to discuss menus for special occasions, such as weddings, parties, or banquets.

  • Order or requisition food or other supplies needed to ensure efficient operation.

  • Record production or operational data on specified forms.

  • Check the quality of raw or cooked food products to ensure that standards are met.

  • Determine production schedules and staff requirements necessary to ensure timely delivery of services.

  • Arrange for equipment purchases or repairs.

  • Collaborate with other personnel to plan and develop recipes or menus, taking into account such factors as seasonal availability of ingredients or the likely number of customers.

  • Check the quantity and quality of received products.

  • Plan, direct, or supervise food preparation or cooking activities of multiple kitchens or restaurants in an establishment such as a restaurant chain, hospital, or hotel.

Technologies & Software

  • GroupMe
  • Facebook
  • Microsoft Word
  • Internet browser software
  • Axxya Systems Nutritionist Pro
  • Email software
  • Barrington Software CookenPro Commercial
  • Menu planning software
  • Google Sheets
  • Microsoft Office software
  • IPro Restaurant Inventory, Recipe & Menu Software
  • CostGuard
  • Enggist & Grandjean EGS F&B Control
  • Microsoft Excel
  • Delphi Technology
  • ReServe Interactive
  • EGS CALCMENU
  • Nutrition analysis software
  • Microsoft Outlook
  • GNOME Gnutrition
  • Sage MAS 90 ERP
  • Microsoft PowerPoint
  • ADP eTIME
  • SoftCafe MenuPro
  • Gemini for Workspace
  • Flippy (Miso Robotics)
  • Culinary Software Services ChefTec
  • Toast AI
  • ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • Woks
  • Gas-powered deep-fat fryers
  • Pizza ovens
  • Cappuccino makers
  • Laptop computers
  • Vegetable peelers
  • Chefs' knives
  • Pressurized steam cookers
  • Broilers
  • Steam tables
  • Knife sharpeners
  • Garbage compactors
  • Cake decorating tools
  • Food smokers
  • Blenders
  • Bone saws
  • Ice shaving or crushing equipment
  • Sifters
  • Cream whippers
  • Instant-read pocket thermometers
  • Mandolines
  • Meat thermometers
  • Convection ovens
  • Serrated blade knives
  • Parisian cutters
  • Portion scales
  • Commercial microwave ovens
  • Sieves
  • Strainers
  • Electric deep-fat fryers
  • Rolling pins
  • Vegetable brushes
  • Kitchen tongs
  • Food processors
  • Kitchen shears
  • Commercial coffeemakers
  • Oyster knives
  • Gas stoves
  • Commercial coffee grinders
  • Fruit zesters
  • Apple corers
  • Waffle makers
  • Braziers
  • Carbonated beverage dispensers
  • Toasters
  • Melon ballers
  • Boning knives
  • Conveyer ovens
  • Rotisserie units
  • Pasta machines
  • Rice cookers
  • Plane graters
  • Refrigerator thermometers
  • Food shredders
  • Salamanders
  • Desktop computers
  • Hot dog cookers
  • Bread slicers
  • Dry or liquid measuring cups
  • Paring knives
  • Mixers
  • Infrared heat lamps
  • Steam kettles
  • Juice dispensers
  • Meat grinders
  • Food dicers
  • Kitchen fire extinguishers
  • Blast chillers
  • Slicing machines
  • Electric stoves
  • Ice-making machines
  • Box graters
  • Grills
  • Electric ovens
  • Double boilers
  • Gas ovens
  • Meat slicers
  • Commercial dishwashers
  • Griddles
  • Personal computers
  • Juice extractors
  • Fire suppression blankets

Alternative Job Titles